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Inflation: February 2025 (Final)
Euro area inflation in February was revised down to 0.4% MoM and 2.3% YoY in February from the first estimate of 0.5% MoM and 2.4% YoY.
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Inflation: February 2025 (Preliminary)
Euro area inflation was 0.5% MoM and 2.4% YoY in February, down from 2.5% YoY in January but slightly above expectations of 2.3% YoY.
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Inflation: January 2025 (Final)
Euro area inflation is confirmed at -0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY for January.
Core inflation sees a slight upward revision in the monthly rate to -0.9% MoM from -1.0% MoM but the annual rate remains at 2.7% YoY.
Energy was revised up from 2.9% MoM and 1.8% YoY to 3.0% MoM and 1.9% YoY.
Monthly services inflation saw a minor upward revision from -0.2% MoM to -0.1% MoM with the annual rate unchanged at 3.9% YoY.
Energy accounted for the entire 0.1 ppt acceleration in the annual rate.
Services keeps the core inflation rate high with a contribution of 1.77 ppts. </aside>
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Inflation: January 2025 (Preliminary)
Euro area inflation comes in slightly above expectations even though there was a substantial monthly decline. The -0.3% MoM was the third monthly decline in the last five months, but it was not enough to keep the annual rate from accelerating slightly to 2.5% YoY in January from 2.4% YoY in December where analysts expected it to stay at. Similarly, core inflation beat expectations at 2.7% YoY (for the fifth consecutive month) despite a sharp -1.0% MoM decline. Analysts had expected core inflation to slow to 2.6% YoY, what would have been a new three year low.
Both food and energy prices put upward pressure on the headline index in January with the former up 0.6% MoM and the latter up 2.9% MoM. Food (and alcohol & tobacco) inflation had gotten slightly hotter in Q4 2024 but came back down in January to 2.3% YoY, the lowest since August 2024. Energy prices have reversed from being deflationary in Q3 2024 to now being up 1.8% YoY, the highest annual increase since April 2023. This is consistent with energy commodity prices seeing a strong December.
The weakness in inflation came in both goods and services. The non-energy industrial goods segment saw inflation of -2.4% MoM and 0.5% YoY in January. Goods prices continue to be depressed as a result of weak economic activity and consumer demand. Services inflation, which has been sticky as a result of strong wage growth, was -0.2% MoM and 3.9% YoY (just -0.1 ppts from the December rate). The reason we are only seeing a small deceleration in the annual rate is that services prices fell -0.1% MoM in January 2024 and the 0.7% MoM increase in December 2023 fell of, so there was no help from base effects. Regardless, short-term trends look favorable for the ECB (but also a bit concerning) as the average monthly rate for the past six months comes out to a decline -0.13%.
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Inflation: December 2024 (Final)
Euro area inflation was confirmed at 0.4% MoM and 2.4% YoY in December, and core inflation was confirmed at 0.5% MoM and 2.7% YoY (where it has been for the last four readings. Services remains the main component of inflation at 1.78 ppts, followed by food at 0.51 ppts. Goods and non-energy goods combined only contribute 0.14 ppts.
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Inflation: December 2024 (Preliminary)
Euro area inflation accelerated from 2.2% YoY in November to 2.4% YoY in December, the highest rate since July. Core inflation was unchanged at 2.7% YoY, however, where it has been since September. Both rates were in line with expectations.
On a monthly basis, HICP inflation was 0.4% MoM and core inflation was 0.5% MoM. The headline acceleration came from an 0.6% MoM increase in energy prices while food prices actually fell slightly -0.1% MoM. Non-energy goods saw a decline of -0.1% MoM but was offset by a strong increase of 0.8% MoM in services prices which are back to an annual rate of 4.0% YoY.
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Inflation: November 2024 (Final)
Euro area inflation was revised slightly lower to 2.2% YoY in November from the preliminary estimate of 2.3% YoY. Core inflation was confirmed at 2.7% YoY. Both the monthly and annual rates of food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation were revised down by -0.1 ppt to 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY. Energy and non-energy industrial goods saw similar -0.1 ppt adjustments to their annual inflation rates of -2.0% YoY and 0.6% YoY respectively.
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